Ariel Focus Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 16.78
| AFOYX Fund | USD 18.02 0.16 0.90% |
Ariel |
Ariel Focus Target Price Odds to finish below 16.78
The tendency of Ariel Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 16.78 or more in 90 days |
| 18.02 | 90 days | 16.78 | about 35.59 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ariel Focus to drop to $ 16.78 or more in 90 days from now is about 35.59 (This Ariel Focus Fund probability density function shows the probability of Ariel Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ariel Focus Fund price to stay between $ 16.78 and its current price of $18.02 at the end of the 90-day period is about 62.36 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.21 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ariel Focus will likely underperform. Additionally Ariel Focus Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ariel Focus Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ariel Focus
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ariel Focus Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ariel Focus' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ariel Focus Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ariel Focus is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ariel Focus' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ariel Focus Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ariel Focus within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0003 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Ariel Focus Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ariel Focus for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ariel Focus Fund can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Latest headline from news.google.com: Ariel Investments Focus Fund Q3 2024 Commentary - Seeking Alpha | |
| The fund holds 98.21% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Ariel Focus Technical Analysis
Ariel Focus' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ariel Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ariel Focus Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ariel Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ariel Focus Predictive Forecast Models
Ariel Focus' time-series forecasting models is one of many Ariel Focus' mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ariel Focus' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ariel Focus Fund
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ariel Focus for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ariel Focus Fund help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Ariel Investments Focus Fund Q3 2024 Commentary - Seeking Alpha | |
| The fund holds 98.21% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Other Information on Investing in Ariel Mutual Fund
Ariel Focus financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ariel Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ariel with respect to the benefits of owning Ariel Focus security.
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