Agarwal Industrial (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1064.67
| AGARIND Stock | 1,189 17.60 1.50% |
Agarwal |
Agarwal Industrial Target Price Odds to finish below 1064.67
The tendency of Agarwal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 1,065 or more in 90 days |
| 1,189 | 90 days | 1,065 | about 21.65 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agarwal Industrial to drop to 1,065 or more in 90 days from now is about 21.65 (This Agarwal Industrial probability density function shows the probability of Agarwal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Agarwal Industrial price to stay between 1,065 and its current price of 1189.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 59.85 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Agarwal Industrial has a beta of 0.67. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Agarwal Industrial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Agarwal Industrial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Agarwal Industrial has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Agarwal Industrial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Agarwal Industrial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agarwal Industrial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Agarwal Industrial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agarwal Industrial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agarwal Industrial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agarwal Industrial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agarwal Industrial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.67 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 74.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Agarwal Industrial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Agarwal Industrial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Agarwal Industrial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Agarwal Industrial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Agarwal Industrial is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 70.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited Expands Reach with New Mangalore Portand Acquisition - Marketscreener.com |
Agarwal Industrial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Agarwal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Agarwal Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agarwal Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 980.1 M |
Agarwal Industrial Technical Analysis
Agarwal Industrial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agarwal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agarwal Industrial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agarwal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Agarwal Industrial Predictive Forecast Models
Agarwal Industrial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Agarwal Industrial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agarwal Industrial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Agarwal Industrial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Agarwal Industrial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Agarwal Industrial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Agarwal Industrial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Agarwal Industrial is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 70.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited Expands Reach with New Mangalore Portand Acquisition - Marketscreener.com |
Other Information on Investing in Agarwal Stock
Agarwal Industrial financial ratios help investors to determine whether Agarwal Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Agarwal with respect to the benefits of owning Agarwal Industrial security.