AG Anadolu (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 318.94
| AGHOL Stock | TRY 325.50 2.50 0.77% |
AGHOL |
AG Anadolu Target Price Odds to finish below 318.94
The tendency of AGHOL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 318.94 or more in 90 days |
| 325.50 | 90 days | 318.94 | about 60.28 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AG Anadolu to drop to 318.94 or more in 90 days from now is about 60.28 (This AG Anadolu Group probability density function shows the probability of AGHOL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AG Anadolu Group price to stay between 318.94 and its current price of 325.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.14 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.15 . This suggests AG Anadolu Group market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, AG Anadolu is expected to follow. Additionally AG Anadolu Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. AG Anadolu Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AG Anadolu
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AG Anadolu Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AG Anadolu Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AG Anadolu is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AG Anadolu's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AG Anadolu Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AG Anadolu within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 17.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
AG Anadolu Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AG Anadolu for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AG Anadolu Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AG Anadolu Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AG Anadolu Group has accumulated 18.84 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.09, which is about average as compared to similar companies. AG Anadolu Group has a current ratio of 0.96, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist AG Anadolu until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AG Anadolu's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AG Anadolu Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AGHOL to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AG Anadolu's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 49.0% of AG Anadolu shares are held by company insiders |
AG Anadolu Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AGHOL Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AG Anadolu's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AG Anadolu's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 243.5 M |
AG Anadolu Technical Analysis
AG Anadolu's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AGHOL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AG Anadolu Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing AGHOL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AG Anadolu Predictive Forecast Models
AG Anadolu's time-series forecasting models is one of many AG Anadolu's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AG Anadolu's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AG Anadolu Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about AG Anadolu for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AG Anadolu Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AG Anadolu Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AG Anadolu Group has accumulated 18.84 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.09, which is about average as compared to similar companies. AG Anadolu Group has a current ratio of 0.96, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist AG Anadolu until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AG Anadolu's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AG Anadolu Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AGHOL to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AG Anadolu's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 49.0% of AG Anadolu shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in AGHOL Stock
AG Anadolu financial ratios help investors to determine whether AGHOL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AGHOL with respect to the benefits of owning AG Anadolu security.