Agile Group Holdings Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 4.66
| AGPYY Stock | USD 4.90 0.22 4.30% |
Agile |
Agile Group Target Price Odds to finish over 4.66
The tendency of Agile Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 4.66 in 90 days |
| 4.90 | 90 days | 4.66 | about 52.7 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agile Group to stay above $ 4.66 in 90 days from now is about 52.7 (This Agile Group Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Agile Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Agile Group Holdings price to stay between $ 4.66 and its current price of $4.9 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.05 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Agile Group Holdings has a beta of -5.59. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Agile Group Holdings are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Agile Group is expected to outperform its benchmark. In addition to that Agile Group Holdings has an alpha of 4.9846, implying that it can generate a 4.98 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Agile Group Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Agile Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agile Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agile Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Agile Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agile Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agile Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agile Group Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agile Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 4.98 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -5.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Agile Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Agile Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Agile Group Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Agile Group Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Agile Group Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Agile Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Agile Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Agile Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agile Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.9 B |
Agile Group Technical Analysis
Agile Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agile Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agile Group Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agile Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Agile Group Predictive Forecast Models
Agile Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Agile Group's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agile Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Agile Group Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Agile Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Agile Group Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Agile Group Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Agile Group Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Additional Tools for Agile Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Agile Group's price analysis, check to measure Agile Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agile Group is operating at the current time. Most of Agile Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agile Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agile Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agile Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.