Agro Phos (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 51.38
| AGROPHOS | 42.74 0.70 1.67% |
Agro |
Agro Phos Target Price Odds to finish over 51.38
The tendency of Agro Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 51.38 or more in 90 days |
| 42.74 | 90 days | 51.38 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agro Phos to move over 51.38 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Agro Phos India probability density function shows the probability of Agro Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Agro Phos India price to stay between its current price of 42.74 and 51.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 73.81 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Agro Phos has a beta of 0.57. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Agro Phos average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Agro Phos India will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Agro Phos India has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Agro Phos Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Agro Phos
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agro Phos India. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Agro Phos Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agro Phos is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agro Phos' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agro Phos India, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agro Phos within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Agro Phos Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Agro Phos for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Agro Phos India can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Agro Phos India had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.07 B. Net Loss for the year was (52.79 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 415.83 M. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Agro Phos India Standalone September 2024 Net Sales at Rs 31.50 crore, down 19.53 percent Y-o-Y - Moneycontrol |
Agro Phos Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Agro Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Agro Phos' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agro Phos' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 907 K |
Agro Phos Technical Analysis
Agro Phos' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agro Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agro Phos India. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agro Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Agro Phos Predictive Forecast Models
Agro Phos' time-series forecasting models is one of many Agro Phos' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agro Phos' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Agro Phos India
Checking the ongoing alerts about Agro Phos for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Agro Phos India help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Agro Phos India had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.07 B. Net Loss for the year was (52.79 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 415.83 M. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Agro Phos India Standalone September 2024 Net Sales at Rs 31.50 crore, down 19.53 percent Y-o-Y - Moneycontrol |
Other Information on Investing in Agro Stock
Agro Phos financial ratios help investors to determine whether Agro Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Agro with respect to the benefits of owning Agro Phos security.