Absa Group Ltd Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 23.15
| AGRPY Stock | USD 19.75 0.91 4.83% |
Absa |
Absa Group Target Price Odds to finish below 23.15
The tendency of Absa Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 23.15 after 90 days |
| 19.75 | 90 days | 23.15 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Absa Group to stay under $ 23.15 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Absa Group Ltd probability density function shows the probability of Absa Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Absa Group price to stay between its current price of $ 19.75 and $ 23.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.5 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Absa Group has a beta of 0.0319. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Absa Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Absa Group Ltd will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Absa Group Ltd has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Absa Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Absa Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Absa Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Absa Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Absa Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Absa Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Absa Group Ltd, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Absa Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0067 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Absa Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Absa Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Absa Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Absa Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 415.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 66 B |
Absa Group Technical Analysis
Absa Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Absa Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Absa Group Ltd. In general, you should focus on analyzing Absa Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Absa Group Predictive Forecast Models
Absa Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Absa Group's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Absa Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Absa Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Absa Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Absa Group options trading.
Additional Tools for Absa Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Absa Group's price analysis, check to measure Absa Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Absa Group is operating at the current time. Most of Absa Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Absa Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Absa Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Absa Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.