American International Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 73.29
| AIG Stock | USD 72.85 0.15 0.21% |
Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
American |
American International Target Price Odds to finish below 73.29
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 73.29 after 90 days |
| 72.85 | 90 days | 73.29 | about 13.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American International to stay under $ 73.29 after 90 days from now is about 13.2 (This American International Group probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American International price to stay between its current price of $ 72.85 and $ 73.29 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.59 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon American International has a beta of 0.82. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American International Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American International Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. American International Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for American International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American International Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.82 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
American International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American International Group has 22.39 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.74, which is OK given its current industry classification. American International has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 94.0% of American International shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Geller Advisors LLC Sells 3,348 Shares of American International Group, Inc. |
American International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 725.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
American International Technical Analysis
American International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American International Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American International Predictive Forecast Models
American International's time-series forecasting models is one of many American International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American International
Checking the ongoing alerts about American International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American International Group has 22.39 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.74, which is OK given its current industry classification. American International has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 94.0% of American International shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Geller Advisors LLC Sells 3,348 Shares of American International Group, Inc. |
Check out American International Backtesting, American International Valuation, American International Correlation, American International Hype Analysis, American International Volatility, American International History as well as American International Performance. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Is Multi-line Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American International. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.75) | Dividend Share 1.52 | Earnings Share 5.03 | Revenue Per Share 67.45 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
The market value of American International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.