Arkema SA (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 75.31
| AKE Stock | EUR 74.80 0.40 0.54% |
Arkema |
Arkema SA Target Price Odds to finish below 75.31
The tendency of Arkema Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 75.31 after 90 days |
| 74.80 | 90 days | 75.31 | roughly 2.39 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arkema SA to stay under € 75.31 after 90 days from now is roughly 2.39 (This Arkema SA probability density function shows the probability of Arkema Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arkema SA price to stay between its current price of € 74.80 and € 75.31 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.04 . This suggests Arkema SA market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Arkema SA is expected to follow. Additionally Arkema SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Arkema SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arkema SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arkema SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arkema SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arkema SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arkema SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arkema SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arkema SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Arkema SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arkema SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arkema SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arkema SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Arkema SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arkema Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arkema SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arkema SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 76.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.4 B |
Arkema SA Technical Analysis
Arkema SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arkema Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arkema SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arkema Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arkema SA Predictive Forecast Models
Arkema SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Arkema SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arkema SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arkema SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arkema SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arkema SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arkema SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in Arkema Stock
Arkema SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arkema Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arkema with respect to the benefits of owning Arkema SA security.