Anugerah Kagum (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.82
| AKKU Stock | IDR 14.00 1.00 7.69% |
Anugerah |
Anugerah Kagum Target Price Odds to finish below 0.82
The tendency of Anugerah Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.82 or more in 90 days |
| 14.00 | 90 days | 0.82 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Anugerah Kagum to drop to 0.82 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Anugerah Kagum Karya probability density function shows the probability of Anugerah Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Anugerah Kagum Karya price to stay between 0.82 and its current price of 14.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 42.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Anugerah Kagum Karya has a beta of -0.43. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Anugerah Kagum are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Anugerah Kagum Karya is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Anugerah Kagum Karya has an alpha of 0.6468, implying that it can generate a 0.65 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Anugerah Kagum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Anugerah Kagum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Anugerah Kagum Karya. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Anugerah Kagum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Anugerah Kagum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Anugerah Kagum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Anugerah Kagum Karya, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Anugerah Kagum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.65 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Anugerah Kagum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Anugerah Kagum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Anugerah Kagum Karya can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Anugerah Kagum Karya had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Anugerah Kagum Karya has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company has a current ratio of 0.3, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Anugerah Kagum until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Anugerah Kagum's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Anugerah Kagum Karya sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Anugerah to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Anugerah Kagum's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Anugerah Kagum Karya reported the revenue of 3.05 B. Net Loss for the year was (121.9 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3 B. | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Anugerah Kagum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Anugerah Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Anugerah Kagum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Anugerah Kagum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.7 B |
Anugerah Kagum Technical Analysis
Anugerah Kagum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Anugerah Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Anugerah Kagum Karya. In general, you should focus on analyzing Anugerah Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Anugerah Kagum Predictive Forecast Models
Anugerah Kagum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Anugerah Kagum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Anugerah Kagum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Anugerah Kagum Karya
Checking the ongoing alerts about Anugerah Kagum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Anugerah Kagum Karya help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Anugerah Kagum Karya had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Anugerah Kagum Karya has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company has a current ratio of 0.3, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Anugerah Kagum until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Anugerah Kagum's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Anugerah Kagum Karya sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Anugerah to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Anugerah Kagum's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Anugerah Kagum Karya reported the revenue of 3.05 B. Net Loss for the year was (121.9 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3 B. | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Anugerah Stock
Anugerah Kagum financial ratios help investors to determine whether Anugerah Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Anugerah with respect to the benefits of owning Anugerah Kagum security.