Ampol (Australia) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 33.12
| ALD Stock | 28.00 0.03 0.11% |
Ampol |
Ampol Target Price Odds to finish over 33.12
The tendency of Ampol Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 33.12 or more in 90 days |
| 28.00 | 90 days | 33.12 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ampol to move over 33.12 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Ampol probability density function shows the probability of Ampol Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ampol price to stay between its current price of 28.00 and 33.12 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.41 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ampol has a beta of -0.0439. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Ampol are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Ampol is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ampol has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ampol Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ampol
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ampol. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ampol Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ampol is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ampol's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ampol, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ampol within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.86 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Ampol Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ampol for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ampol can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ampol generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ampol is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Ampol Limited Issues A600 Million Subordinated Notes - TipRanks |
Ampol Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ampol Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ampol's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ampol's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 238.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 300.6 M |
Ampol Technical Analysis
Ampol's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ampol Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ampol. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ampol Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ampol Predictive Forecast Models
Ampol's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ampol's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ampol's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ampol
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ampol for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ampol help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ampol generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ampol is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Ampol Limited Issues A600 Million Subordinated Notes - TipRanks |
Additional Tools for Ampol Stock Analysis
When running Ampol's price analysis, check to measure Ampol's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ampol is operating at the current time. Most of Ampol's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ampol's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ampol's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ampol to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.