Alfa SAB (Mexico) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.24
| ALFAA Stock | MXN 15.47 0.46 3.06% |
Alfa |
Alfa SAB Target Price Odds to finish over 15.24
The tendency of Alfa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 15.24 in 90 days |
| 15.47 | 90 days | 15.24 | about 21.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alfa SAB to stay above 15.24 in 90 days from now is about 21.68 (This Alfa SAB de probability density function shows the probability of Alfa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alfa SAB de price to stay between 15.24 and its current price of 15.47 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.17 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alfa SAB has a beta of 0.6. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alfa SAB average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alfa SAB de will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alfa SAB de has an alpha of 0.4881, implying that it can generate a 0.49 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alfa SAB Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alfa SAB
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alfa SAB de. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alfa SAB Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alfa SAB is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alfa SAB's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alfa SAB de, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alfa SAB within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.49 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.60 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Alfa SAB Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alfa SAB for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alfa SAB de can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alfa SAB de appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 89.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Alfa SAB Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alfa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alfa SAB's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alfa SAB's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.9 B |
Alfa SAB Technical Analysis
Alfa SAB's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alfa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alfa SAB de. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alfa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alfa SAB Predictive Forecast Models
Alfa SAB's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alfa SAB's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alfa SAB's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alfa SAB de
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alfa SAB for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alfa SAB de help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alfa SAB de appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 89.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Alfa Stock
Alfa SAB financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alfa Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alfa with respect to the benefits of owning Alfa SAB security.