Alaska Air (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 47.60
| ALK Stock | EUR 49.63 0.15 0.30% |
Alaska |
Alaska Air Target Price Odds to finish below 47.60
The tendency of Alaska Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 47.60 or more in 90 days |
| 49.63 | 90 days | 47.60 | about 85.28 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alaska Air to drop to € 47.60 or more in 90 days from now is about 85.28 (This Alaska Air Group probability density function shows the probability of Alaska Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alaska Air Group price to stay between € 47.60 and its current price of €49.63 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.75 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Alaska Air has a beta of 0.32. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alaska Air average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alaska Air Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alaska Air Group has an alpha of 0.6132, implying that it can generate a 0.61 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alaska Air Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alaska Air
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alaska Air Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alaska Air Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alaska Air is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alaska Air's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alaska Air Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alaska Air within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.24 |
Alaska Air Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alaska Air for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alaska Air Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alaska Air Group has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Alaska Air Group has accumulated 1.88 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 88.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Alaska Air Group has a current ratio of 0.62, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Alaska Air until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alaska Air's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alaska Air Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alaska to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alaska Air's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 83.0% of Alaska Air shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Alaska Air Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alaska Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alaska Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alaska Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 127.5 M |
Alaska Air Technical Analysis
Alaska Air's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alaska Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alaska Air Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alaska Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alaska Air Predictive Forecast Models
Alaska Air's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alaska Air's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alaska Air's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alaska Air Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alaska Air for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alaska Air Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alaska Air Group has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Alaska Air Group has accumulated 1.88 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 88.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Alaska Air Group has a current ratio of 0.62, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Alaska Air until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alaska Air's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alaska Air Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alaska to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alaska Air's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 83.0% of Alaska Air shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Alaska Stock
When determining whether Alaska Air Group is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Alaska Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock:Check out Alaska Air Backtesting, Alaska Air Valuation, Alaska Air Correlation, Alaska Air Hype Analysis, Alaska Air Volatility, Alaska Air History as well as Alaska Air Performance. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.