Alakasa Industrindo (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 322.98
| ALKA Stock | IDR 378.00 2.00 0.53% |
Alakasa |
Alakasa Industrindo Target Price Odds to finish below 322.98
The tendency of Alakasa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 322.98 or more in 90 days |
| 378.00 | 90 days | 322.98 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alakasa Industrindo to drop to 322.98 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Alakasa Industrindo Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Alakasa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alakasa Industrindo Tbk price to stay between 322.98 and its current price of 378.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.63 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alakasa Industrindo has a beta of 0.85. This suggests Alakasa Industrindo Tbk market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Alakasa Industrindo is expected to follow. Additionally Alakasa Industrindo Tbk has an alpha of 0.3076, implying that it can generate a 0.31 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alakasa Industrindo Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Alakasa Industrindo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alakasa Industrindo Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alakasa Industrindo Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alakasa Industrindo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alakasa Industrindo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alakasa Industrindo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.31 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.85 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 33.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Alakasa Industrindo Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alakasa Industrindo for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alakasa Industrindo Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alakasa Industrindo had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 93.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Alakasa Industrindo Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alakasa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alakasa Industrindo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alakasa Industrindo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 507.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 248.5 B |
Alakasa Industrindo Technical Analysis
Alakasa Industrindo's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alakasa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alakasa Industrindo Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alakasa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alakasa Industrindo Predictive Forecast Models
Alakasa Industrindo's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alakasa Industrindo's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alakasa Industrindo's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alakasa Industrindo Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alakasa Industrindo for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alakasa Industrindo Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alakasa Industrindo had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 93.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Alakasa Stock
Alakasa Industrindo financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alakasa Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alakasa with respect to the benefits of owning Alakasa Industrindo security.