Moulinvest (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.62
| ALMOU Stock | EUR 12.30 0.35 2.77% |
Moulinvest |
Moulinvest Target Price Odds to finish below 11.62
The tendency of Moulinvest Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 11.62 or more in 90 days |
| 12.30 | 90 days | 11.62 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Moulinvest to drop to € 11.62 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Moulinvest probability density function shows the probability of Moulinvest Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Moulinvest price to stay between € 11.62 and its current price of €12.3 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Moulinvest has a beta of -0.34. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Moulinvest are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Moulinvest is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Moulinvest has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Moulinvest Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Moulinvest
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moulinvest. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moulinvest's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Moulinvest Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Moulinvest is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Moulinvest's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Moulinvest, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Moulinvest within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
Moulinvest Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Moulinvest for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Moulinvest can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Moulinvest generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Moulinvest has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Moulinvest has accumulated 36.06 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 129.1, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Moulinvest has a current ratio of 0.91, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Moulinvest until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Moulinvest's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Moulinvest sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Moulinvest to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Moulinvest's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 64.0% of Moulinvest shares are held by company insiders |
Moulinvest Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Moulinvest Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Moulinvest's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moulinvest's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 27 M |
Moulinvest Technical Analysis
Moulinvest's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Moulinvest Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Moulinvest. In general, you should focus on analyzing Moulinvest Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Moulinvest Predictive Forecast Models
Moulinvest's time-series forecasting models is one of many Moulinvest's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Moulinvest's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Moulinvest
Checking the ongoing alerts about Moulinvest for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Moulinvest help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Moulinvest generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Moulinvest has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Moulinvest has accumulated 36.06 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 129.1, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Moulinvest has a current ratio of 0.91, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Moulinvest until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Moulinvest's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Moulinvest sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Moulinvest to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Moulinvest's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 64.0% of Moulinvest shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Moulinvest Stock Analysis
When running Moulinvest's price analysis, check to measure Moulinvest's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moulinvest is operating at the current time. Most of Moulinvest's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moulinvest's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moulinvest's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moulinvest to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.