Awilco LNG (Norway) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.92
| ALNG Stock | NOK 4.46 0.04 0.90% |
Awilco |
Awilco LNG Target Price Odds to finish below 3.92
The tendency of Awilco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 3.92 or more in 90 days |
| 4.46 | 90 days | 3.92 | about 1.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Awilco LNG to drop to 3.92 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.01 (This Awilco LNG ASA probability density function shows the probability of Awilco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Awilco LNG ASA price to stay between 3.92 and its current price of 4.46 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.38 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Awilco LNG has a beta of 0.27. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Awilco LNG average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Awilco LNG ASA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Awilco LNG ASA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Awilco LNG Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Awilco LNG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Awilco LNG ASA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Awilco LNG Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Awilco LNG is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Awilco LNG's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Awilco LNG ASA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Awilco LNG within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.76 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Awilco LNG Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Awilco LNG for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Awilco LNG ASA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Awilco LNG ASA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Awilco LNG ASA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Awilco LNG ASA has accumulated 206.91 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.14, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Awilco LNG ASA has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Awilco LNG until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Awilco LNG's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Awilco LNG ASA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Awilco to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Awilco LNG's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 53.0% of Awilco LNG shares are held by company insiders |
Awilco LNG Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Awilco Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Awilco LNG's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Awilco LNG's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 132.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.6 M |
Awilco LNG Technical Analysis
Awilco LNG's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Awilco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Awilco LNG ASA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Awilco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Awilco LNG Predictive Forecast Models
Awilco LNG's time-series forecasting models is one of many Awilco LNG's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Awilco LNG's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Awilco LNG ASA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Awilco LNG for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Awilco LNG ASA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Awilco LNG ASA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Awilco LNG ASA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Awilco LNG ASA has accumulated 206.91 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.14, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Awilco LNG ASA has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Awilco LNG until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Awilco LNG's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Awilco LNG ASA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Awilco to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Awilco LNG's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 53.0% of Awilco LNG shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Awilco Stock
Awilco LNG financial ratios help investors to determine whether Awilco Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Awilco with respect to the benefits of owning Awilco LNG security.