Allison Transmission Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 117.41
| ALSN Stock | USD 118.50 0.08 0.07% |
Allison |
Allison Transmission Target Price Odds to finish below 117.41
The tendency of Allison Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 117.41 or more in 90 days |
| 118.50 | 90 days | 117.41 | about 92.24 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Allison Transmission to drop to $ 117.41 or more in 90 days from now is about 92.24 (This Allison Transmission Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Allison Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Allison Transmission price to stay between $ 117.41 and its current price of $118.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.3 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.5 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Allison Transmission will likely underperform. Additionally Allison Transmission Holdings has an alpha of 0.2233, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Allison Transmission Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Allison Transmission
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allison Transmission. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allison Transmission's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Allison Transmission Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Allison Transmission is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Allison Transmission's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Allison Transmission Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Allison Transmission within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.50 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 11.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Allison Transmission Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Allison Transmission for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Allison Transmission can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Allison Transmission has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Visteon Corp Trading Down 3.67 percent on Nov 26 |
Allison Transmission Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Allison Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Allison Transmission's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allison Transmission's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 91 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 555 M |
Allison Transmission Technical Analysis
Allison Transmission's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Allison Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Allison Transmission Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Allison Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Allison Transmission Predictive Forecast Models
Allison Transmission's time-series forecasting models is one of many Allison Transmission's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Allison Transmission's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Allison Transmission
Checking the ongoing alerts about Allison Transmission for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Allison Transmission help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Allison Transmission has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Visteon Corp Trading Down 3.67 percent on Nov 26 |
Check out Allison Transmission Backtesting, Allison Transmission Valuation, Allison Transmission Correlation, Allison Transmission Hype Analysis, Allison Transmission Volatility, Allison Transmission History as well as Allison Transmission Performance. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allison Transmission. If investors know Allison will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allison Transmission listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.17 | Dividend Share 0.98 | Earnings Share 8.19 | Revenue Per Share 36.828 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.204 |
The market value of Allison Transmission is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allison that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allison Transmission's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allison Transmission's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allison Transmission's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allison Transmission's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allison Transmission's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allison Transmission is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allison Transmission's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.