Firsthand Alternative Energy Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 5.68
| ALTEX Fund | USD 10.21 0.14 1.39% |
Firsthand |
Firsthand Alternative Target Price Odds to finish below 5.68
The tendency of Firsthand Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 5.68 or more in 90 days |
| 10.21 | 90 days | 5.68 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Firsthand Alternative to drop to $ 5.68 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Firsthand Alternative Energy probability density function shows the probability of Firsthand Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Firsthand Alternative price to stay between $ 5.68 and its current price of $10.21 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.93 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.07 . This suggests Firsthand Alternative Energy market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Firsthand Alternative is expected to follow. Additionally Firsthand Alternative Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Firsthand Alternative Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Firsthand Alternative
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Firsthand Alternative. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Firsthand Alternative's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Firsthand Alternative Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Firsthand Alternative is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Firsthand Alternative's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Firsthand Alternative Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Firsthand Alternative within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Firsthand Alternative Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Firsthand Alternative for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Firsthand Alternative can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of -12.0% | |
| Firsthand Alternative holds about 25.62% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Firsthand Alternative Technical Analysis
Firsthand Alternative's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Firsthand Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Firsthand Alternative Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Firsthand Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Firsthand Alternative Predictive Forecast Models
Firsthand Alternative's time-series forecasting models is one of many Firsthand Alternative's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Firsthand Alternative's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Firsthand Alternative
Checking the ongoing alerts about Firsthand Alternative for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Firsthand Alternative help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of -12.0% | |
| Firsthand Alternative holds about 25.62% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Firsthand Mutual Fund
Firsthand Alternative financial ratios help investors to determine whether Firsthand Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Firsthand with respect to the benefits of owning Firsthand Alternative security.
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