Allianz SE (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 291.16
| ALV Stock | 292.20 2.90 1.00% |
Allianz |
Allianz SE Target Price Odds to finish over 291.16
The tendency of Allianz Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 291.16 in 90 days |
| 292.20 | 90 days | 291.16 | about 47.15 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Allianz SE to stay above 291.16 in 90 days from now is about 47.15 (This Allianz SE VNA probability density function shows the probability of Allianz Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Allianz SE VNA price to stay between 291.16 and its current price of 292.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.3 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Allianz SE VNA has a beta of -0.0173. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Allianz SE are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Allianz SE VNA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Allianz SE VNA has an alpha of 0.0549, implying that it can generate a 0.0549 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Allianz SE Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Allianz SE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allianz SE VNA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allianz SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Allianz SE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Allianz SE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Allianz SE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Allianz SE VNA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Allianz SE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Allianz SE Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Allianz Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Allianz SE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allianz SE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 403.1 M |
Allianz SE Technical Analysis
Allianz SE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Allianz Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Allianz SE VNA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Allianz Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Allianz SE Predictive Forecast Models
Allianz SE's time-series forecasting models is one of many Allianz SE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Allianz SE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Allianz SE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Allianz SE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Allianz SE options trading.
Additional Tools for Allianz Stock Analysis
When running Allianz SE's price analysis, check to measure Allianz SE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allianz SE is operating at the current time. Most of Allianz SE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allianz SE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allianz SE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allianz SE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.