ALLIANZ SE (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 28.1
| ALVE Stock | EUR 28.80 0.20 0.70% |
ALLIANZ |
ALLIANZ SE Target Price Odds to finish below 28.1
The tendency of ALLIANZ Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 28.10 or more in 90 days |
| 28.80 | 90 days | 28.10 | about 26.7 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ALLIANZ SE to drop to € 28.10 or more in 90 days from now is about 26.7 (This ALLIANZ SE UNSPADR probability density function shows the probability of ALLIANZ Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ALLIANZ SE UNSPADR price to stay between € 28.10 and its current price of €28.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.04 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ALLIANZ SE has a beta of 0.12. This suggests as returns on the market go up, ALLIANZ SE average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ALLIANZ SE UNSPADR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ALLIANZ SE UNSPADR has an alpha of 0.084, implying that it can generate a 0.084 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ALLIANZ SE Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for ALLIANZ SE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ALLIANZ SE UNSPADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ALLIANZ SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ALLIANZ SE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ALLIANZ SE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ALLIANZ SE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ALLIANZ SE UNSPADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ALLIANZ SE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.72 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
ALLIANZ SE Technical Analysis
ALLIANZ SE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ALLIANZ Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ALLIANZ SE UNSPADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing ALLIANZ Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ALLIANZ SE Predictive Forecast Models
ALLIANZ SE's time-series forecasting models is one of many ALLIANZ SE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ALLIANZ SE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ALLIANZ SE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ALLIANZ SE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ALLIANZ SE options trading.
Other Information on Investing in ALLIANZ Stock
ALLIANZ SE financial ratios help investors to determine whether ALLIANZ Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ALLIANZ with respect to the benefits of owning ALLIANZ SE security.