Allovir Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 0.74
| ALVR Stock | USD 0.54 0.01 1.82% |
Allovir |
Allovir Target Price Odds to finish over 0.74
The tendency of Allovir Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 0.74 or more in 90 days |
| 0.54 | 90 days | 0.74 | about 57.21 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Allovir to move over $ 0.74 or more in 90 days from now is about 57.21 (This Allovir probability density function shows the probability of Allovir Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Allovir price to stay between its current price of $ 0.54 and $ 0.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.5 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.29 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Allovir will likely underperform. Additionally Allovir has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Allovir Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Allovir
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allovir. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allovir's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Allovir Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Allovir is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Allovir's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Allovir, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Allovir within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.42 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Allovir Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Allovir for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Allovir can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Allovir generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Allovir has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Allovir has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Allovir has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (190.42 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 165 K. | |
| Allovir currently holds about 172.67 M in cash with (124.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.91, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Allovir has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 49.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION Halper Sadeh LLC Investigates ALVR, BRKH, MKFG on Behalf of Shareholders |
Allovir Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Allovir Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Allovir's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allovir's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 104.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 183.9 M |
Allovir Technical Analysis
Allovir's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Allovir Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Allovir. In general, you should focus on analyzing Allovir Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Allovir Predictive Forecast Models
Allovir's time-series forecasting models is one of many Allovir's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Allovir's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Allovir
Checking the ongoing alerts about Allovir for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Allovir help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Allovir generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Allovir has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Allovir has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Allovir has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (190.42 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 165 K. | |
| Allovir currently holds about 172.67 M in cash with (124.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.91, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Allovir has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 49.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION Halper Sadeh LLC Investigates ALVR, BRKH, MKFG on Behalf of Shareholders |
Additional Tools for Allovir Stock Analysis
When running Allovir's price analysis, check to measure Allovir's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allovir is operating at the current time. Most of Allovir's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allovir's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allovir's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allovir to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.