ASSA ABLOY (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 29.35
| ALZC Stock | EUR 28.45 0.04 0.14% |
ASSA |
ASSA ABLOY Target Price Odds to finish over 29.35
The tendency of ASSA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over € 29.35 or more in 90 days |
| 28.45 | 90 days | 29.35 | about 11.41 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ASSA ABLOY to move over € 29.35 or more in 90 days from now is about 11.41 (This ASSA ABLOY AB probability density function shows the probability of ASSA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ASSA ABLOY AB price to stay between its current price of € 28.45 and € 29.35 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.6 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ASSA ABLOY AB has a beta of -0.0157. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ASSA ABLOY are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ASSA ABLOY AB is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ASSA ABLOY AB has an alpha of 0.0617, implying that it can generate a 0.0617 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ASSA ABLOY Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ASSA ABLOY
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASSA ABLOY AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASSA ABLOY's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ASSA ABLOY Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ASSA ABLOY is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ASSA ABLOY's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ASSA ABLOY AB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ASSA ABLOY within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
ASSA ABLOY Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ASSA ABLOY for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ASSA ABLOY AB can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has €20.2 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| ASSA ABLOY AB has accumulated 20.2 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 65.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. ASSA ABLOY AB has a current ratio of 0.97, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist ASSA ABLOY until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, ASSA ABLOY's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like ASSA ABLOY AB sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ASSA to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about ASSA ABLOY's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 67.0% of ASSA ABLOY shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
ASSA ABLOY Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ASSA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ASSA ABLOY's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ASSA ABLOY's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B |
ASSA ABLOY Technical Analysis
ASSA ABLOY's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ASSA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ASSA ABLOY AB. In general, you should focus on analyzing ASSA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ASSA ABLOY Predictive Forecast Models
ASSA ABLOY's time-series forecasting models is one of many ASSA ABLOY's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ASSA ABLOY's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ASSA ABLOY AB
Checking the ongoing alerts about ASSA ABLOY for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ASSA ABLOY AB help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has €20.2 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| ASSA ABLOY AB has accumulated 20.2 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 65.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. ASSA ABLOY AB has a current ratio of 0.97, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist ASSA ABLOY until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, ASSA ABLOY's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like ASSA ABLOY AB sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ASSA to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about ASSA ABLOY's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 67.0% of ASSA ABLOY shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Other Information on Investing in ASSA Stock
ASSA ABLOY financial ratios help investors to determine whether ASSA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ASSA with respect to the benefits of owning ASSA ABLOY security.