Dassault Aviation (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 191.5
| AM Stock | EUR 188.40 0.70 0.37% |
Dassault |
Dassault Aviation Target Price Odds to finish below 191.5
The tendency of Dassault Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 191.50 after 90 days |
| 188.40 | 90 days | 191.50 | about 58.41 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dassault Aviation to stay under € 191.50 after 90 days from now is about 58.41 (This Dassault Aviation SA probability density function shows the probability of Dassault Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dassault Aviation price to stay between its current price of € 188.40 and € 191.50 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.46 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Dassault Aviation SA has a beta of -0.14. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Dassault Aviation are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Dassault Aviation SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Dassault Aviation SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Dassault Aviation Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Dassault Aviation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dassault Aviation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Dassault Aviation Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dassault Aviation is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dassault Aviation's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dassault Aviation SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dassault Aviation within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Dassault Aviation Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dassault Aviation for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dassault Aviation can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Dassault Aviation generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Dassault Aviation Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dassault Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dassault Aviation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dassault Aviation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 79.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5 B |
Dassault Aviation Technical Analysis
Dassault Aviation's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dassault Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dassault Aviation SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dassault Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Dassault Aviation Predictive Forecast Models
Dassault Aviation's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dassault Aviation's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dassault Aviation's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Dassault Aviation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Dassault Aviation for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dassault Aviation help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Dassault Aviation generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Dassault Stock
Dassault Aviation financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dassault Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dassault with respect to the benefits of owning Dassault Aviation security.