Makmur Berkah (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 111.34
| AMAN Stock | IDR 109.00 2.00 1.80% |
Makmur |
Makmur Berkah Target Price Odds to finish below 111.34
The tendency of Makmur Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 111.34 after 90 days |
| 109.00 | 90 days | 111.34 | about 36.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Makmur Berkah to stay under 111.34 after 90 days from now is about 36.3 (This Makmur Berkah Amanda probability density function shows the probability of Makmur Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Makmur Berkah Amanda price to stay between its current price of 109.00 and 111.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Makmur Berkah Amanda has a beta of -0.15. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Makmur Berkah are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Makmur Berkah Amanda is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Makmur Berkah Amanda has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Makmur Berkah Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Makmur Berkah
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Makmur Berkah Amanda. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Makmur Berkah Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Makmur Berkah is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Makmur Berkah's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Makmur Berkah Amanda, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Makmur Berkah within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Makmur Berkah Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Makmur Berkah for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Makmur Berkah Amanda can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Makmur Berkah Amanda generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 85.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Makmur Berkah Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Makmur Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Makmur Berkah's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Makmur Berkah's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 57.7 B |
Makmur Berkah Technical Analysis
Makmur Berkah's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Makmur Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Makmur Berkah Amanda. In general, you should focus on analyzing Makmur Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Makmur Berkah Predictive Forecast Models
Makmur Berkah's time-series forecasting models is one of many Makmur Berkah's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Makmur Berkah's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Makmur Berkah Amanda
Checking the ongoing alerts about Makmur Berkah for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Makmur Berkah Amanda help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Makmur Berkah Amanda generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 85.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Makmur Stock
Makmur Berkah financial ratios help investors to determine whether Makmur Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Makmur with respect to the benefits of owning Makmur Berkah security.