Advanced Micro Devices Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.55
| AMD Stock | 26.08 0.13 0.50% |
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Advanced Micro Target Price Odds to finish below 23.55
The tendency of Advanced Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 23.55 or more in 90 days |
| 26.08 | 90 days | 23.55 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Advanced Micro to drop to 23.55 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Advanced Micro Devices probability density function shows the probability of Advanced Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Advanced Micro Devices price to stay between 23.55 and its current price of 26.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.93 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.43 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Advanced Micro will likely underperform. Additionally Advanced Micro Devices has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Advanced Micro Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Advanced Micro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advanced Micro Devices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Advanced Micro Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Advanced Micro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Advanced Micro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Advanced Micro Devices, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Advanced Micro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Advanced Micro Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Advanced Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Advanced Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advanced Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B |
Advanced Micro Technical Analysis
Advanced Micro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Advanced Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Advanced Micro Devices. In general, you should focus on analyzing Advanced Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Advanced Micro Predictive Forecast Models
Advanced Micro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Advanced Micro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Advanced Micro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Advanced Micro in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Advanced Micro's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Advanced Micro options trading.
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