Americanas (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.23
| AMER3 Stock | 8.70 1.12 14.78% |
Americanas |
Americanas Target Price Odds to finish below 4.23
The tendency of Americanas Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 4.23 or more in 90 days |
| 8.70 | 90 days | 4.23 | about 26.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Americanas to drop to 4.23 or more in 90 days from now is about 26.85 (This Americanas SA probability density function shows the probability of Americanas Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Americanas SA price to stay between 4.23 and its current price of 8.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.96 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Americanas SA has a beta of -2.13. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Americanas SA are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Americanas is expected to outperform its benchmark. Moreover Americanas SA has an alpha of 1.4035, implying that it can generate a 1.4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Americanas Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Americanas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Americanas SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Americanas. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Americanas' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Americanas' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Americanas SA.Americanas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Americanas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Americanas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Americanas SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Americanas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.40 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -2.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.69 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Americanas Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Americanas for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Americanas SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Americanas SA is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Americanas SA appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Americanas Technical Analysis
Americanas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Americanas Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Americanas SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Americanas Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Americanas Predictive Forecast Models
Americanas' time-series forecasting models is one of many Americanas' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Americanas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Americanas SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Americanas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Americanas SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Americanas SA is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Americanas SA appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Additional Tools for Americanas Stock Analysis
When running Americanas' price analysis, check to measure Americanas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Americanas is operating at the current time. Most of Americanas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Americanas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Americanas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Americanas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.