American Homes 4 Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.11
| AMH Stock | USD 38.32 0.27 0.71% |
American |
American Homes Target Price Odds to finish below 38.11
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 38.11 or more in 90 days |
| 38.32 | 90 days | 38.11 | about 45.93 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Homes to drop to $ 38.11 or more in 90 days from now is about 45.93 (This American Homes 4 probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Homes 4 price to stay between $ 38.11 and its current price of $38.32 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.54 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon American Homes has a beta of 0.66. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Homes average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Homes 4 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Homes 4 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. American Homes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Homes 4. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American Homes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Homes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Homes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Homes 4, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Homes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
American Homes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Homes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Homes 4 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American Homes 4 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 30th of September 2024 American Homes paid $ 0.26 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Mutual of America Capital Management LLC Trims Holdings in American Homes 4 Rent - MarketBeat |
American Homes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 362.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.4 M |
American Homes Technical Analysis
American Homes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Homes 4. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Homes Predictive Forecast Models
American Homes' time-series forecasting models is one of many American Homes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Homes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Homes 4
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Homes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Homes 4 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American Homes 4 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 30th of September 2024 American Homes paid $ 0.26 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Mutual of America Capital Management LLC Trims Holdings in American Homes 4 Rent - MarketBeat |
Check out American Homes Backtesting, American Homes Valuation, American Homes Correlation, American Homes Hype Analysis, American Homes Volatility, American Homes History as well as American Homes Performance. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Single-Family Residential REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Homes. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Homes listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 0.96 | Revenue Per Share 4.649 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.055 | Return On Assets 0.0192 |
The market value of American Homes 4 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Homes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Homes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Homes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Homes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Homes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Homes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Homes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.