Africa Oil Corp Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 1.47
| AOIFF Stock | USD 1.48 0.02 1.37% |
Africa |
Africa Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 1.47
The tendency of Africa Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.47 or more in 90 days |
| 1.48 | 90 days | 1.47 | over 95.93 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Africa Oil to drop to $ 1.47 or more in 90 days from now is over 95.93 (This Africa Oil Corp probability density function shows the probability of Africa Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Africa Oil Corp price to stay between $ 1.47 and its current price of $1.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.11 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Africa Oil has a beta of 0.15. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Africa Oil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Africa Oil Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Africa Oil Corp has an alpha of 0.0191, implying that it can generate a 0.0191 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Africa Oil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Africa Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Africa Oil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Africa Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Africa Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Africa Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Africa Oil Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Africa Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Africa Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Africa Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Africa Oil Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Africa Oil Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Africa Oil Corp may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Africa Oil Corp has accumulated about 191.04 M in cash with (10.21 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.4. | |
| Roughly 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Africa Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Africa Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Africa Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Africa Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 474.7 M |
Africa Oil Technical Analysis
Africa Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Africa Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Africa Oil Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Africa Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Africa Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Africa Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Africa Oil's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Africa Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Africa Oil Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Africa Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Africa Oil Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Africa Oil Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Africa Oil Corp may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Africa Oil Corp has accumulated about 191.04 M in cash with (10.21 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.4. | |
| Roughly 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Africa Pink Sheet
Africa Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Africa Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Africa with respect to the benefits of owning Africa Oil security.