Applied Therapeutics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 7.67
| APLT Stock | USD 2.03 6.54 76.31% |
Applied |
Applied Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish over 7.67
The tendency of Applied Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 7.67 or more in 90 days |
| 2.03 | 90 days | 7.67 | about 57.6 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Applied Therapeutics to move over $ 7.67 or more in 90 days from now is about 57.6 (This Applied Therapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Applied Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Applied Therapeutics price to stay between its current price of $ 2.03 and $ 7.67 at the end of the 90-day period is about 42.37 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Applied Therapeutics has a beta of -0.15. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Applied Therapeutics are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Applied Therapeutics is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Applied Therapeutics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Applied Therapeutics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Applied Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Applied Therapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Applied Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Applied Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Applied Therapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Applied Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.67 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Applied Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Applied Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Applied Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Applied Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Applied Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 9.99 M. Net Loss for the year was (119.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Applied Therapeutics currently holds about 67.72 M in cash with (55.17 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.41. | |
| Applied Therapeutics has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: FDA Rejects Applied Therapeutics NDA for Govorestat, Citing Flaws Shares Plunge 76 |
Applied Therapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Applied Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Applied Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 84.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49.9 M |
Applied Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Applied Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Applied Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Applied Therapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Applied Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Applied Therapeutics Predictive Forecast Models
Applied Therapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Applied Therapeutics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Applied Therapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Applied Therapeutics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Applied Therapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Applied Therapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Applied Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Applied Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 9.99 M. Net Loss for the year was (119.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Applied Therapeutics currently holds about 67.72 M in cash with (55.17 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.41. | |
| Applied Therapeutics has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: FDA Rejects Applied Therapeutics NDA for Govorestat, Citing Flaws Shares Plunge 76 |
Additional Tools for Applied Stock Analysis
When running Applied Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Applied Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Applied Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.