Cavanal Hill Ultra Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 9.96
| APUSX Fund | USD 9.99 0.01 0.10% |
Cavanal |
Cavanal Hill Target Price Odds to finish over 9.96
The tendency of Cavanal Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 9.96 in 90 days |
| 9.99 | 90 days | 9.96 | about 50.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cavanal Hill to stay above $ 9.96 in 90 days from now is about 50.0 (This Cavanal Hill Ultra probability density function shows the probability of Cavanal Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cavanal Hill Ultra price to stay between $ 9.96 and its current price of $9.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 42.93 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Cavanal Hill Ultra has a beta of -0.007. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Cavanal Hill are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Cavanal Hill Ultra is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Cavanal Hill Ultra has an alpha of 0.003, implying that it can generate a 0.003008 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cavanal Hill Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cavanal Hill
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cavanal Hill Ultra. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cavanal Hill's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cavanal Hill Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cavanal Hill is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cavanal Hill's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cavanal Hill Ultra, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cavanal Hill within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.007 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -1.89 |
Cavanal Hill Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cavanal Hill for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cavanal Hill Ultra can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund holds about 13.79% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Cavanal Hill Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cavanal Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cavanal Hill's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cavanal Hill's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Cavanal Hill Technical Analysis
Cavanal Hill's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cavanal Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cavanal Hill Ultra. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cavanal Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cavanal Hill Predictive Forecast Models
Cavanal Hill's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cavanal Hill's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cavanal Hill's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cavanal Hill Ultra
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cavanal Hill for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cavanal Hill Ultra help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund holds about 13.79% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Cavanal Mutual Fund
Cavanal Hill financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cavanal Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cavanal with respect to the benefits of owning Cavanal Hill security.
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