Aqua Public (Thailand) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 0.408
| AQUA Stock | THB 0.34 0.01 3.03% |
Aqua |
Aqua Public Target Price Odds to finish over 0.408
The tendency of Aqua Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 0.41 or more in 90 days |
| 0.34 | 90 days | 0.41 | about 9.32 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aqua Public to move over 0.41 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.32 (This Aqua Public probability density function shows the probability of Aqua Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aqua Public price to stay between its current price of 0.34 and 0.41 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.4 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aqua Public has a beta of 0.49. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aqua Public average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aqua Public will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aqua Public has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aqua Public Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aqua Public
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aqua Public. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aqua Public Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aqua Public is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aqua Public's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aqua Public, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aqua Public within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.49 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Aqua Public Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aqua Public for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aqua Public can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aqua Public is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aqua Public has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aqua Public appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Aqua Public has accumulated 1.46 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.77, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Aqua Public has a current ratio of 0.43, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Aqua Public until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Aqua Public's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Aqua Public sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Aqua to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Aqua Public's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 52.0% of Aqua Public shares are held by company insiders |
Aqua Public Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aqua Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aqua Public's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aqua Public's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.9 B |
Aqua Public Technical Analysis
Aqua Public's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aqua Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aqua Public. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aqua Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aqua Public Predictive Forecast Models
Aqua Public's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aqua Public's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aqua Public's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aqua Public
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aqua Public for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aqua Public help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aqua Public is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aqua Public has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aqua Public appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Aqua Public has accumulated 1.46 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.77, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Aqua Public has a current ratio of 0.43, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Aqua Public until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Aqua Public's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Aqua Public sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Aqua to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Aqua Public's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 52.0% of Aqua Public shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Aqua Stock
Aqua Public financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aqua Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aqua with respect to the benefits of owning Aqua Public security.