Araneta Properties (Philippines) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.54
| ARA Stock | 0.52 0.01 1.89% |
Araneta |
Araneta Properties Target Price Odds to finish below 0.54
The tendency of Araneta Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 0.54 after 90 days |
| 0.52 | 90 days | 0.54 | about 29.47 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Araneta Properties to stay under 0.54 after 90 days from now is about 29.47 (This Araneta Properties probability density function shows the probability of Araneta Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Araneta Properties price to stay between its current price of 0.52 and 0.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.4 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Araneta Properties has a beta of -0.0907. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Araneta Properties are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Araneta Properties is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Araneta Properties has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Araneta Properties Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Araneta Properties
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Araneta Properties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Araneta Properties Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Araneta Properties is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Araneta Properties' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Araneta Properties, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Araneta Properties within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.23 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Araneta Properties Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Araneta Properties for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Araneta Properties can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Araneta Properties generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Araneta Properties has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Araneta Properties has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (19.81 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Araneta Properties has accumulated about 3.91 M in cash with (2.15 M) of positive cash flow from operations. |
Araneta Properties Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Araneta Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Araneta Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Araneta Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.9 M |
Araneta Properties Technical Analysis
Araneta Properties' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Araneta Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Araneta Properties. In general, you should focus on analyzing Araneta Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Araneta Properties Predictive Forecast Models
Araneta Properties' time-series forecasting models is one of many Araneta Properties' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Araneta Properties' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Araneta Properties
Checking the ongoing alerts about Araneta Properties for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Araneta Properties help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Araneta Properties generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Araneta Properties has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Araneta Properties has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (19.81 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Araneta Properties has accumulated about 3.91 M in cash with (2.15 M) of positive cash flow from operations. |
Other Information on Investing in Araneta Stock
Araneta Properties financial ratios help investors to determine whether Araneta Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Araneta with respect to the benefits of owning Araneta Properties security.