Arch Resources Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 134.66
| ARCH Stock | USD 173.36 1.01 0.58% |
Arch |
Arch Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 134.66
The tendency of Arch Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 134.66 or more in 90 days |
| 173.36 | 90 days | 134.66 | about 28.55 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arch Resources to drop to $ 134.66 or more in 90 days from now is about 28.55 (This Arch Resources probability density function shows the probability of Arch Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arch Resources price to stay between $ 134.66 and its current price of $173.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 68.03 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.16 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Arch Resources will likely underperform. Additionally Arch Resources has an alpha of 0.2464, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Arch Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arch Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arch Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arch Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arch Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arch Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arch Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arch Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arch Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 16.12 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Arch Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arch Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arch Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arch Resources is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION Halper Sadeh LLC Investigates MNTX, CFB, ARCH, CYTH on Behalf of Shareholders |
Arch Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arch Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arch Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arch Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 320.5 M |
Arch Resources Technical Analysis
Arch Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arch Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arch Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arch Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arch Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Arch Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Arch Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arch Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arch Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arch Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arch Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arch Resources is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION Halper Sadeh LLC Investigates MNTX, CFB, ARCH, CYTH on Behalf of Shareholders |
Check out Arch Resources Backtesting, Arch Resources Valuation, Arch Resources Correlation, Arch Resources Hype Analysis, Arch Resources Volatility, Arch Resources History as well as Arch Resources Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Arch Stock please use our How to Invest in Arch Resources guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Is Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Resources. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | Dividend Share 4.14 | Earnings Share 9.59 | Revenue Per Share 145.14 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of Arch Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.