Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17.73
| ARCT Stock | USD 18.34 0.83 4.74% |
Arcturus |
Arcturus Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish below 17.73
The tendency of Arcturus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 17.73 or more in 90 days |
| 18.34 | 90 days | 17.73 | about 13.69 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arcturus Therapeutics to drop to $ 17.73 or more in 90 days from now is about 13.69 (This Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Arcturus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arcturus Therapeutics price to stay between $ 17.73 and its current price of $18.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.45 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.39 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Arcturus Therapeutics will likely underperform. Additionally Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Arcturus Therapeutics Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Arcturus Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcturus Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcturus Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arcturus Therapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arcturus Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arcturus Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arcturus Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Arcturus Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arcturus Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arcturus Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arcturus Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Arcturus Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 157.75 M. Net Loss for the year was (29.73 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 62.95 M. | |
| Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings currently holds about 283.49 M in cash with (18.1 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.67. | |
| Arcturus Therapeutics has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Marantz Jing L. of 11869 shares of Arcturus Therapeutics at 34.92 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Arcturus Therapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arcturus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arcturus Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcturus Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 292 M |
Arcturus Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Arcturus Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arcturus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arcturus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arcturus Therapeutics Predictive Forecast Models
Arcturus Therapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Arcturus Therapeutics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arcturus Therapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arcturus Therapeutics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arcturus Therapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arcturus Therapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arcturus Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Arcturus Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 157.75 M. Net Loss for the year was (29.73 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 62.95 M. | |
| Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings currently holds about 283.49 M in cash with (18.1 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.67. | |
| Arcturus Therapeutics has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Marantz Jing L. of 11869 shares of Arcturus Therapeutics at 34.92 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Additional Tools for Arcturus Stock Analysis
When running Arcturus Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Arcturus Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arcturus Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Arcturus Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arcturus Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arcturus Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arcturus Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.