Arion Banki (Iceland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 138.02
| ARION Stock | 156.50 0.25 0.16% |
Arion |
Arion Banki Target Price Odds to finish over 138.02
The tendency of Arion Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 138.02 in 90 days |
| 156.50 | 90 days | 138.02 | about 91.5 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arion Banki to stay above 138.02 in 90 days from now is about 91.5 (This Arion banki hf probability density function shows the probability of Arion Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arion banki hf price to stay between 138.02 and its current price of 156.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 74.22 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Arion banki hf has a beta of -0.15. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Arion Banki are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Arion banki hf is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Arion banki hf has an alpha of 0.1845, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Arion Banki Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Arion Banki
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arion banki hf. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arion Banki Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arion Banki is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arion Banki's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arion banki hf, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arion Banki within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Arion Banki Technical Analysis
Arion Banki's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arion Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arion banki hf. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arion Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arion Banki Predictive Forecast Models
Arion Banki's time-series forecasting models is one of many Arion Banki's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arion Banki's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Arion Banki in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Arion Banki's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Arion Banki options trading.