Astral Foods (South Africa) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14,845
| ARL Stock | 19,000 1.00 0.01% |
Astral |
Astral Foods Target Price Odds to finish below 14,845
The tendency of Astral Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 19,000 | 90 days | 19,000 | about 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Astral Foods to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This Astral Foods probability density function shows the probability of Astral Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Astral Foods has a beta of 0.13. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Astral Foods average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Astral Foods will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Astral Foods has an alpha of 0.1095, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Astral Foods Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Astral Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astral Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Astral Foods Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Astral Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Astral Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Astral Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Astral Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 664.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0008 |
Astral Foods Technical Analysis
Astral Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Astral Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Astral Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Astral Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Astral Foods Predictive Forecast Models
Astral Foods' time-series forecasting models is one of many Astral Foods' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Astral Foods' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Astral Foods in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Astral Foods' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Astral Foods options trading.