Arch Therapeutics Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Under 0.01
| ARTH Stock | USD 0.20 0.03 13.04% |
Arch |
Arch Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish below 0.01
The tendency of Arch OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.01 or more in 90 days |
| 0.20 | 90 days | 0.01 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arch Therapeutics to drop to $ 0.01 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Arch Therapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Arch OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arch Therapeutics price to stay between $ 0.01 and its current price of $0.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.81 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Arch Therapeutics has a beta of -1.5. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Arch Therapeutics are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Arch Therapeutics is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Arch Therapeutics has an alpha of 0.102, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Arch Therapeutics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arch Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arch Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arch Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arch Therapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arch Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arch Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arch Therapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arch Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.5 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Arch Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arch Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arch Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arch Therapeutics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Arch Therapeutics has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Arch Therapeutics currently holds 2.81 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.62, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Arch Therapeutics has a current ratio of 0.8, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Arch Therapeutics until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Arch Therapeutics' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Arch Therapeutics sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Arch to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Arch Therapeutics' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 15.65 K. Net Loss for the year was (5.28 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (35.84 K). | |
| Arch Therapeutics currently holds about 55 K in cash with (4.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 15.0% of Arch Therapeutics shares are held by company insiders |
Arch Therapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arch OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arch Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arch Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 M |
Arch Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Arch Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arch OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arch Therapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arch OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arch Therapeutics Predictive Forecast Models
Arch Therapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Arch Therapeutics' otc stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arch Therapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arch Therapeutics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arch Therapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arch Therapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arch Therapeutics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Arch Therapeutics has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Arch Therapeutics currently holds 2.81 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.62, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Arch Therapeutics has a current ratio of 0.8, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Arch Therapeutics until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Arch Therapeutics' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Arch Therapeutics sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Arch to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Arch Therapeutics' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 15.65 K. Net Loss for the year was (5.28 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (35.84 K). | |
| Arch Therapeutics currently holds about 55 K in cash with (4.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 15.0% of Arch Therapeutics shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Arch OTC Stock
Arch Therapeutics financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arch OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arch with respect to the benefits of owning Arch Therapeutics security.