Aurania Resources Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.02
| ARU Stock | CAD 0.46 0.03 6.12% |
Aurania |
Aurania Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 0.02
The tendency of Aurania Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 0.02 or more in 90 days |
| 0.46 | 90 days | 0.02 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aurania Resources to drop to C$ 0.02 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Aurania Resources probability density function shows the probability of Aurania Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aurania Resources price to stay between C$ 0.02 and its current price of C$0.46 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Aurania Resources has a beta of 0.7. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aurania Resources average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aurania Resources will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aurania Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aurania Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aurania Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurania Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aurania Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aurania Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aurania Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aurania Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aurania Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.41 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Aurania Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aurania Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aurania Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aurania Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aurania Resources has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Aurania Resources has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aurania Resources has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Aurania Resources has accumulated C$10.11 Million in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Net Loss for the year was (9.97 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (9.67 K). | |
| Aurania Resources has accumulated about 455.94 K in cash with (8.26 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.01. | |
| Roughly 43.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Aurania Announces Non-Brokered Private Placement of up to C4.0 Million and Debt Settlement - Yahoo Finance |
Aurania Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aurania Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aurania Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurania Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 65.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 325.3 K |
Aurania Resources Technical Analysis
Aurania Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aurania Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aurania Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aurania Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aurania Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Aurania Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aurania Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aurania Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aurania Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aurania Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aurania Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aurania Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aurania Resources has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Aurania Resources has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aurania Resources has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Aurania Resources has accumulated C$10.11 Million in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Net Loss for the year was (9.97 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (9.67 K). | |
| Aurania Resources has accumulated about 455.94 K in cash with (8.26 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.01. | |
| Roughly 43.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Aurania Announces Non-Brokered Private Placement of up to C4.0 Million and Debt Settlement - Yahoo Finance |
Additional Tools for Aurania Stock Analysis
When running Aurania Resources' price analysis, check to measure Aurania Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurania Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Aurania Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurania Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurania Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurania Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.