Aselsan Elektronik (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 52.30
| ASELS Stock | TRY 68.50 0.45 0.66% |
Aselsan |
Aselsan Elektronik Target Price Odds to finish over 52.30
The tendency of Aselsan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 52.30 in 90 days |
| 68.50 | 90 days | 52.30 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aselsan Elektronik to stay above 52.30 in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi probability density function shows the probability of Aselsan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi price to stay between 52.30 and its current price of 68.5 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi has a beta of -0.43. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Aselsan Elektronik are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi has an alpha of 0.2994, implying that it can generate a 0.3 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aselsan Elektronik Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Aselsan Elektronik
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aselsan Elektronik's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aselsan Elektronik Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aselsan Elektronik is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aselsan Elektronik's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aselsan Elektronik within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Aselsan Elektronik Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aselsan Elektronik for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Aselsan Elektronik Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aselsan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aselsan Elektronik's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aselsan Elektronik's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.3 B |
Aselsan Elektronik Technical Analysis
Aselsan Elektronik's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aselsan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aselsan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aselsan Elektronik Predictive Forecast Models
Aselsan Elektronik's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aselsan Elektronik's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aselsan Elektronik's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aselsan Elektronik for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Aselsan Stock
Aselsan Elektronik financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aselsan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aselsan with respect to the benefits of owning Aselsan Elektronik security.