Astra International (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5,049
| ASII Stock | IDR 5,150 25.00 0.48% |
Astra |
Astra International Target Price Odds to finish below 5,049
The tendency of Astra Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 5,150 | 90 days | 5,150 | about 84.08 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Astra International to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 84.08 (This Astra International Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Astra Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Astra International has a beta of 0.3. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Astra International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Astra International Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Astra International Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Astra International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Astra International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astra International Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Astra International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Astra International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Astra International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Astra International Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Astra International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0032 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 105.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Astra International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Astra International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Astra International Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 50.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Astra International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Astra Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Astra International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astra International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 64.6 T |
Astra International Technical Analysis
Astra International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Astra Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Astra International Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Astra Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Astra International Predictive Forecast Models
Astra International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Astra International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Astra International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Astra International Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Astra International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Astra International Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 50.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Astra Stock
Astra International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Astra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Astra with respect to the benefits of owning Astra International security.