Alam Sutera (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 154.32
| ASRI Stock | IDR 159.00 1.00 0.62% |
Alam |
Alam Sutera Target Price Odds to finish below 154.32
The tendency of Alam Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 154.32 or more in 90 days |
| 159.00 | 90 days | 154.32 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alam Sutera to drop to 154.32 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Alam Sutera Realty probability density function shows the probability of Alam Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alam Sutera Realty price to stay between 154.32 and its current price of 159.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.28 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alam Sutera Realty has a beta of -1.46. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Alam Sutera Realty are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Alam Sutera is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Alam Sutera Realty has an alpha of 0.3712, implying that it can generate a 0.37 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alam Sutera Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alam Sutera
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alam Sutera Realty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alam Sutera Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alam Sutera is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alam Sutera's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alam Sutera Realty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alam Sutera within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 30.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Alam Sutera Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alam Sutera for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alam Sutera Realty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alam Sutera Realty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alam Sutera Realty has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Alam Sutera Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alam Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alam Sutera's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alam Sutera's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 T |
Alam Sutera Technical Analysis
Alam Sutera's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alam Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alam Sutera Realty. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alam Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alam Sutera Predictive Forecast Models
Alam Sutera's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alam Sutera's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alam Sutera's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alam Sutera Realty
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alam Sutera for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alam Sutera Realty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alam Sutera Realty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alam Sutera Realty has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Alam Stock
Alam Sutera financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alam Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alam with respect to the benefits of owning Alam Sutera security.