Amtech Systems Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.43
| ASYS Stock | USD 5.62 0.19 3.27% |
Amtech |
Amtech Systems Target Price Odds to finish below 3.43
The tendency of Amtech Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 3.43 or more in 90 days |
| 5.62 | 90 days | 3.43 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Amtech Systems to drop to $ 3.43 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Amtech Systems probability density function shows the probability of Amtech Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Amtech Systems price to stay between $ 3.43 and its current price of $5.62 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.61 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Amtech Systems has a beta of -0.67. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Amtech Systems are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Amtech Systems is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Amtech Systems has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Amtech Systems Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Amtech Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amtech Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amtech Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Amtech Systems Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Amtech Systems is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Amtech Systems' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Amtech Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Amtech Systems within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.67 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Amtech Systems Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Amtech Systems for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Amtech Systems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Amtech Systems generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 113.31 M. Net Loss for the year was (12.58 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 39.51 M. | |
| Amtech Systems currently holds about 47.69 M in cash with (7.7 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.43. | |
| Amtech Systems has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 73.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Nvidia Tops Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates |
Amtech Systems Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Amtech Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Amtech Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amtech Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.1 M |
Amtech Systems Technical Analysis
Amtech Systems' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Amtech Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amtech Systems. In general, you should focus on analyzing Amtech Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Amtech Systems Predictive Forecast Models
Amtech Systems' time-series forecasting models is one of many Amtech Systems' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Amtech Systems' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Amtech Systems
Checking the ongoing alerts about Amtech Systems for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Amtech Systems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Amtech Systems generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 113.31 M. Net Loss for the year was (12.58 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 39.51 M. | |
| Amtech Systems currently holds about 47.69 M in cash with (7.7 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.43. | |
| Amtech Systems has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 73.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Nvidia Tops Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates |
Additional Tools for Amtech Stock Analysis
When running Amtech Systems' price analysis, check to measure Amtech Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amtech Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Amtech Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amtech Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amtech Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amtech Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.