Athira Pharma Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.12
| ATHA Stock | USD 0.64 0.02 3.03% |
Athira |
Athira Pharma Target Price Odds to finish below 0.12
The tendency of Athira Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.12 or more in 90 days |
| 0.64 | 90 days | 0.12 | about 20.4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Athira Pharma to drop to $ 0.12 or more in 90 days from now is about 20.4 (This Athira Pharma probability density function shows the probability of Athira Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Athira Pharma price to stay between $ 0.12 and its current price of $0.64 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.27 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.27 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Athira Pharma will likely underperform. Additionally Athira Pharma has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Athira Pharma Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Athira Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Athira Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Athira Pharma Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Athira Pharma is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Athira Pharma's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Athira Pharma, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Athira Pharma within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -1.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Athira Pharma Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Athira Pharma for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Athira Pharma can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Athira Pharma generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Athira Pharma has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Athira Pharma has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Net Loss for the year was (117.67 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Athira Pharma currently holds about 252.4 M in cash with (100.75 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.67, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Athira Pharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 62.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Litton Mark James of 662 shares of Athira Pharma at 2.74 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Athira Pharma Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Athira Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Athira Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Athira Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 147.4 M |
Athira Pharma Technical Analysis
Athira Pharma's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Athira Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Athira Pharma. In general, you should focus on analyzing Athira Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Athira Pharma Predictive Forecast Models
Athira Pharma's time-series forecasting models is one of many Athira Pharma's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Athira Pharma's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Athira Pharma
Checking the ongoing alerts about Athira Pharma for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Athira Pharma help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Athira Pharma generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Athira Pharma has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Athira Pharma has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Net Loss for the year was (117.67 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Athira Pharma currently holds about 252.4 M in cash with (100.75 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.67, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Athira Pharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 62.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Litton Mark James of 662 shares of Athira Pharma at 2.74 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Athira Pharma Backtesting, Athira Pharma Valuation, Athira Pharma Correlation, Athira Pharma Hype Analysis, Athira Pharma Volatility, Athira Pharma History as well as Athira Pharma Performance. For information on how to trade Athira Stock refer to our How to Trade Athira Stock guide.You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Athira Pharma. If investors know Athira will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Athira Pharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.84) | Return On Assets (0.48) | Return On Equity (0.85) |
The market value of Athira Pharma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Athira that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Athira Pharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Athira Pharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Athira Pharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Athira Pharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Athira Pharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Athira Pharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Athira Pharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.