ATHENE HOLDING (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.17
| ATR0 Stock | 23.80 0.20 0.85% |
ATHENE |
ATHENE HOLDING Target Price Odds to finish below 23.17
The tendency of ATHENE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 23.17 or more in 90 days |
| 23.80 | 90 days | 23.17 | about 80.12 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ATHENE HOLDING to drop to 23.17 or more in 90 days from now is about 80.12 (This ATHENE HOLDING PRFSERC probability density function shows the probability of ATHENE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ATHENE HOLDING PRFSERC price to stay between 23.17 and its current price of 23.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.19 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ATHENE HOLDING PRFSERC has a beta of -0.0208. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ATHENE HOLDING are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ATHENE HOLDING PRFSERC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ATHENE HOLDING PRFSERC has an alpha of 0.1151, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ATHENE HOLDING Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for ATHENE HOLDING
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ATHENE HOLDING PRFSERC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ATHENE HOLDING Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ATHENE HOLDING is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ATHENE HOLDING's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ATHENE HOLDING PRFSERC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ATHENE HOLDING within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
ATHENE HOLDING Technical Analysis
ATHENE HOLDING's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ATHENE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ATHENE HOLDING PRFSERC. In general, you should focus on analyzing ATHENE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ATHENE HOLDING Predictive Forecast Models
ATHENE HOLDING's time-series forecasting models is one of many ATHENE HOLDING's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ATHENE HOLDING's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ATHENE HOLDING in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ATHENE HOLDING's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ATHENE HOLDING options trading.
Other Information on Investing in ATHENE Stock
ATHENE HOLDING financial ratios help investors to determine whether ATHENE Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ATHENE with respect to the benefits of owning ATHENE HOLDING security.