Avenue Therapeutics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.38
| ATXI Stock | USD 2.06 0.02 0.98% |
Avenue |
Avenue Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish below 9.38
The tendency of Avenue Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 9.38 after 90 days |
| 2.06 | 90 days | 9.38 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Avenue Therapeutics to stay under $ 9.38 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Avenue Therapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Avenue Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Avenue Therapeutics price to stay between its current price of $ 2.06 and $ 9.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 79.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Avenue Therapeutics has a beta of -0.14. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Avenue Therapeutics are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Avenue Therapeutics is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Avenue Therapeutics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Avenue Therapeutics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Avenue Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avenue Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avenue Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Avenue Therapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Avenue Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Avenue Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Avenue Therapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Avenue Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Avenue Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Avenue Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Avenue Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Avenue Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Avenue Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Avenue Therapeutics has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (10.38 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Avenue Therapeutics currently holds about 890 K in cash with (9.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.6. | |
| Avenue Therapeutics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Avenue Therapeutics director Jay Kranzler sells 136 in stock |
Avenue Therapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Avenue Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Avenue Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avenue Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 141.2 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 M | |
| Shares Float | 1.3 M |
Avenue Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Avenue Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Avenue Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Avenue Therapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Avenue Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Avenue Therapeutics Predictive Forecast Models
Avenue Therapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Avenue Therapeutics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Avenue Therapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Avenue Therapeutics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Avenue Therapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Avenue Therapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Avenue Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Avenue Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Avenue Therapeutics has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (10.38 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Avenue Therapeutics currently holds about 890 K in cash with (9.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.6. | |
| Avenue Therapeutics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Avenue Therapeutics director Jay Kranzler sells 136 in stock |
Check out Avenue Therapeutics Backtesting, Avenue Therapeutics Valuation, Avenue Therapeutics Correlation, Avenue Therapeutics Hype Analysis, Avenue Therapeutics Volatility, Avenue Therapeutics History as well as Avenue Therapeutics Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Avenue Stock please use our How to Invest in Avenue Therapeutics guide.You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avenue Therapeutics. If investors know Avenue will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avenue Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.76) | Earnings Share 24.78 | Return On Assets (2.01) | Return On Equity (5.35) |
The market value of Avenue Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avenue that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avenue Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avenue Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avenue Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avenue Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avenue Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Avenue Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avenue Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.