Anglogold Ashanti Plc Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.65
| AU Stock | USD 25.95 0.75 2.98% |
AngloGold |
AngloGold Ashanti Target Price Odds to finish below 20.65
The tendency of AngloGold Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 20.65 or more in 90 days |
| 25.95 | 90 days | 20.65 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AngloGold Ashanti to drop to $ 20.65 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AngloGold Ashanti plc probability density function shows the probability of AngloGold Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AngloGold Ashanti plc price to stay between $ 20.65 and its current price of $25.95 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.51 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon AngloGold Ashanti has a beta of 0.36. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AngloGold Ashanti average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AngloGold Ashanti plc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AngloGold Ashanti plc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. AngloGold Ashanti Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AngloGold Ashanti
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AngloGold Ashanti plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AngloGold Ashanti's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AngloGold Ashanti Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AngloGold Ashanti is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AngloGold Ashanti's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AngloGold Ashanti plc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AngloGold Ashanti within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
AngloGold Ashanti Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AngloGold Ashanti for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AngloGold Ashanti plc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AngloGold Ashanti generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company generated the yearly revenue of 4.58 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (235 M) with gross profit of 1.15 B. | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Anglogold Ashanti PLC Stock Price Up 2.82 percent on Nov 22 |
AngloGold Ashanti Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AngloGold Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AngloGold Ashanti's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AngloGold Ashanti's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 421.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 964 M |
AngloGold Ashanti Technical Analysis
AngloGold Ashanti's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AngloGold Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AngloGold Ashanti plc. In general, you should focus on analyzing AngloGold Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AngloGold Ashanti Predictive Forecast Models
AngloGold Ashanti's time-series forecasting models is one of many AngloGold Ashanti's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AngloGold Ashanti's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AngloGold Ashanti plc
Checking the ongoing alerts about AngloGold Ashanti for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AngloGold Ashanti plc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AngloGold Ashanti generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company generated the yearly revenue of 4.58 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (235 M) with gross profit of 1.15 B. | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Anglogold Ashanti PLC Stock Price Up 2.82 percent on Nov 22 |
Additional Tools for AngloGold Stock Analysis
When running AngloGold Ashanti's price analysis, check to measure AngloGold Ashanti's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AngloGold Ashanti is operating at the current time. Most of AngloGold Ashanti's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AngloGold Ashanti's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AngloGold Ashanti's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AngloGold Ashanti to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.