Aurum Resources (Australia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 0.38
| AUE Stock | 0.38 0.03 7.32% |
Aurum |
Aurum Resources Target Price Odds to finish over 0.38
The tendency of Aurum Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 0.38 | 90 days | 0.38 | about 87.53 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aurum Resources to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 87.53 (This Aurum Resources probability density function shows the probability of Aurum Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aurum Resources has a beta of -1.68. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Aurum Resources are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Aurum Resources is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Aurum Resources has an alpha of 0.5338, implying that it can generate a 0.53 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aurum Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aurum Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurum Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aurum Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aurum Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aurum Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aurum Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aurum Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.53 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Aurum Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aurum Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aurum Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aurum Resources has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aurum Resources had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Net Loss for the year was (2.14 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 249. | |
| Aurum Resources generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 33.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Aurum Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aurum Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aurum Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurum Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 82.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.8 M |
Aurum Resources Technical Analysis
Aurum Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aurum Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aurum Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aurum Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aurum Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Aurum Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aurum Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aurum Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aurum Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aurum Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aurum Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aurum Resources has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aurum Resources had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Net Loss for the year was (2.14 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 249. | |
| Aurum Resources generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 33.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Aurum Stock Analysis
When running Aurum Resources' price analysis, check to measure Aurum Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurum Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Aurum Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurum Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurum Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurum Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.