Aura Energy Limited Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 13.48
| AUEEF Stock | USD 0.11 0.05 77.42% |
Aura |
Aura Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 13.48
The tendency of Aura Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 13.48 or more in 90 days |
| 0.11 | 90 days | 13.48 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aura Energy to move over $ 13.48 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Aura Energy Limited probability density function shows the probability of Aura Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aura Energy Limited price to stay between its current price of $ 0.11 and $ 13.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.18 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the pink sheet has the beta coefficient of 2.75 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Aura Energy will likely underperform. Additionally Aura Energy Limited has an alpha of 0.8767, implying that it can generate a 0.88 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aura Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aura Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aura Energy Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aura Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aura Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aura Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aura Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aura Energy Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aura Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.88 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.75 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Aura Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aura Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aura Energy Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aura Energy Limited is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aura Energy Limited has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aura Energy Limited appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Aura Energy Limited has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (3.57 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 92.5 K. | |
| Aura Energy Limited has accumulated about 9.95 M in cash with (2.69 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.02. | |
| Roughly 28.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Aura Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aura Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aura Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aura Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 503.8 M |
Aura Energy Technical Analysis
Aura Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aura Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aura Energy Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aura Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aura Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Aura Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aura Energy's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aura Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aura Energy Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aura Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aura Energy Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aura Energy Limited is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aura Energy Limited has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aura Energy Limited appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Aura Energy Limited has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (3.57 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 92.5 K. | |
| Aura Energy Limited has accumulated about 9.95 M in cash with (2.69 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.02. | |
| Roughly 28.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Aura Pink Sheet
Aura Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aura Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aura with respect to the benefits of owning Aura Energy security.