Aura Biosciences Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.32
| AURA Stock | USD 8.96 0.08 0.90% |
Aura |
Aura Biosciences Target Price Odds to finish below 4.32
The tendency of Aura Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.32 or more in 90 days |
| 8.96 | 90 days | 4.32 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aura Biosciences to drop to $ 4.32 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Aura Biosciences probability density function shows the probability of Aura Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aura Biosciences price to stay between $ 4.32 and its current price of $8.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 34.57 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.01 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Aura Biosciences will likely underperform. Additionally Aura Biosciences has an alpha of 0.0591, implying that it can generate a 0.0591 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aura Biosciences Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aura Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aura Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aura Biosciences Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aura Biosciences is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aura Biosciences' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aura Biosciences, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aura Biosciences within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Aura Biosciences Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aura Biosciences for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aura Biosciences can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aura Biosciences had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Net Loss for the year was (76.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Aura Biosciences currently holds about 122.13 M in cash with (63.85 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.17. | |
| Aura Biosciences has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Aura Biosciences chief medical officer sells 110,663 in stock |
Aura Biosciences Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aura Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aura Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aura Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 226.2 M |
Aura Biosciences Technical Analysis
Aura Biosciences' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aura Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aura Biosciences. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aura Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aura Biosciences Predictive Forecast Models
Aura Biosciences' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aura Biosciences' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aura Biosciences' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aura Biosciences
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aura Biosciences for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aura Biosciences help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aura Biosciences had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Net Loss for the year was (76.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Aura Biosciences currently holds about 122.13 M in cash with (63.85 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.17. | |
| Aura Biosciences has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Aura Biosciences chief medical officer sells 110,663 in stock |
Check out Aura Biosciences Backtesting, Aura Biosciences Valuation, Aura Biosciences Correlation, Aura Biosciences Hype Analysis, Aura Biosciences Volatility, Aura Biosciences History as well as Aura Biosciences Performance. For information on how to trade Aura Stock refer to our How to Trade Aura Stock guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aura Biosciences. If investors know Aura will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aura Biosciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.73) | Return On Assets (0.30) | Return On Equity (0.51) |
The market value of Aura Biosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aura that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aura Biosciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aura Biosciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aura Biosciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aura Biosciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aura Biosciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aura Biosciences is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aura Biosciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.