Aegis Value Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 42.32
| AVALX Fund | USD 41.10 0.23 0.56% |
Aegis |
Aegis Value Target Price Odds to finish over 42.32
The tendency of Aegis Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 42.32 or more in 90 days |
| 41.10 | 90 days | 42.32 | about 6.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aegis Value to move over $ 42.32 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.97 (This Aegis Value Fund probability density function shows the probability of Aegis Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aegis Value Fund price to stay between its current price of $ 41.10 and $ 42.32 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.09 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Aegis Value has a beta of 0.61. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aegis Value average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aegis Value Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aegis Value Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aegis Value Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aegis Value
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aegis Value Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aegis Value Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aegis Value is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aegis Value's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aegis Value Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aegis Value within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Aegis Value Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aegis Value for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aegis Value Fund can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Latest headline from news.google.com: B. Riley Securities Downgrades Adams Resources Energy - MSN | |
| The fund holds 99.79% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Aegis Value Technical Analysis
Aegis Value's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aegis Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aegis Value Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aegis Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aegis Value Predictive Forecast Models
Aegis Value's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aegis Value's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aegis Value's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aegis Value Fund
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aegis Value for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aegis Value Fund help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Latest headline from news.google.com: B. Riley Securities Downgrades Adams Resources Energy - MSN | |
| The fund holds 99.79% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Other Information on Investing in Aegis Mutual Fund
Aegis Value financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aegis Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aegis with respect to the benefits of owning Aegis Value security.
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