Avalonbay Communities Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 186.43
| AVB Stock | USD 226.46 1.41 0.63% |
Closest to current price AvalonBay long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
AvalonBay |
AvalonBay Communities Target Price Odds to finish below 186.43
The tendency of AvalonBay Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 186.43 or more in 90 days |
| 226.46 | 90 days | 186.43 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AvalonBay Communities to drop to $ 186.43 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AvalonBay Communities probability density function shows the probability of AvalonBay Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AvalonBay Communities price to stay between $ 186.43 and its current price of $226.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.11 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon AvalonBay Communities has a beta of 0.34. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AvalonBay Communities average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AvalonBay Communities will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AvalonBay Communities has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. AvalonBay Communities Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for AvalonBay Communities
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AvalonBay Communities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AvalonBay Communities' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AvalonBay Communities Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AvalonBay Communities is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AvalonBay Communities' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AvalonBay Communities, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AvalonBay Communities within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
AvalonBay Communities Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AvalonBay Communities for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AvalonBay Communities can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AvalonBay Communities generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of October 2024 AvalonBay Communities paid $ 1.7 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from ibtimes.com: New Single-Family Rental Homes Could Be Future As Ownership Grows Too Expensive |
AvalonBay Communities Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AvalonBay Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AvalonBay Communities' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AvalonBay Communities' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 141.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 397.9 M |
AvalonBay Communities Technical Analysis
AvalonBay Communities' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AvalonBay Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AvalonBay Communities. In general, you should focus on analyzing AvalonBay Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AvalonBay Communities Predictive Forecast Models
AvalonBay Communities' time-series forecasting models is one of many AvalonBay Communities' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AvalonBay Communities' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AvalonBay Communities
Checking the ongoing alerts about AvalonBay Communities for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AvalonBay Communities help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AvalonBay Communities generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of October 2024 AvalonBay Communities paid $ 1.7 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from ibtimes.com: New Single-Family Rental Homes Could Be Future As Ownership Grows Too Expensive |
Check out AvalonBay Communities Backtesting, AvalonBay Communities Valuation, AvalonBay Communities Correlation, AvalonBay Communities Hype Analysis, AvalonBay Communities Volatility, AvalonBay Communities History as well as AvalonBay Communities Performance. For information on how to trade AvalonBay Stock refer to our How to Trade AvalonBay Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Multi-Family Residential REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AvalonBay Communities. If investors know AvalonBay will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AvalonBay Communities listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.161 | Dividend Share 6.75 | Earnings Share 7.31 | Revenue Per Share 20.613 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.094 |
The market value of AvalonBay Communities is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AvalonBay that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AvalonBay Communities' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AvalonBay Communities' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AvalonBay Communities' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AvalonBay Communities' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AvalonBay Communities' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AvalonBay Communities is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AvalonBay Communities' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.